JPMorgan raises the probability of a recession in the United States to 60% due to Trump's tariffs. It indicates that the economy will contract this year and that unemployment could exceed 5%.
JPMorgan Chase, the largest bank in the United States, increased the likelihood of the country entering a recession in the coming months to 60%. The report was released this Friday and attributes the risk to the new wave of tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump.
According to the analysis, the country's real gross domestic product (GDP) would fall by 0.3% this year, compared to the previous forecast of 1.3% growth. It would be considered a technical recession with two consecutive quarters of contraction.
Increase in unemployment and decrease in consumption
The bank's chief economist, Michael Feroli, warned that unemployment would rise to 5.3% by the end of 2025. He also noted that inflationary pressure will remain high, but without sufficient income support, as wage growth has slowed down.
In a context of greater uncertainty, consumers might be reluctant to spend or use their savings, the expert explained.
Inflation without growth: a dangerous scenario
The entity also warned about a stagflation scenario, where economic stagnation is combined with high inflation. This phenomenon complicates the Federal Reserve's decisions, which aim to control prices while maintaining employment.
Feroli indicated that, while interest rate cuts could be implemented starting in June, these measures would not be enough to reverse the negative impact of tariffs.
A clear warning from Wall Street
JPMorgan is the first major Wall Street player to consider a recession as the main scenario. Other firms, such as Barclays and Citi, have also lowered their forecasts but have not yet dared to consider it certain.
Experts agree that the new import taxes, combined with China's and other countries' trade retaliations, could slow consumption, increase the cost of key products, and hit entire sectors such as technology, fashion, and agriculture.
Trump's trade war, far from strengthening the national economy, could end up weakening its most vulnerable base: the American consumer's wallet.